Would-be the largest airborne transportation industry, the electrical vertical takeoff and landing air aircraft (EVTOL), will change people’s life as much as automobile did a hundred years ago. Morgan Stanley forecasts that by 2040 the market of autonomous urban aircraft will reach $1.5 tr, which is comparable with contemporary $2 tr international automobile market. Major aircraft and multiple start-ups are working on securing their positions on this promising emerging market.

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Actual EVTOLs vary in scale from purely electric single-seater BlackFly, covering 40 mi distance at a speed of 80 mph, to hybrid transporter RG-1, capable of carrying 2,455 kg of cargo for a distance of 1,850 km at cruising speed of 370 kph, or Nuuva V300 from Pipistrel Aircraft, designed to carry 300 kg of cargo for a distance of 300 km.

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Germany-based start-up company Lilium has created an electric VTOL (EVTOL) for 5 persons capable of flying around 188 mi with a speed of 188 MPH. The superb reliability of the EVTOL is achieved by 36 independent ducted fans.

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The range and speed of the the EVTOL is limited by gravimetric energy of its batteries. Lilium does not offer  product’s detailed specification. Nonetheless, according to the printed publications by researches from Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering of Politecnico di Torino, Lilium EVTOL’s estimated weight is 1,700 kg and that of its batteries is 900 kg. EVTOL’s hovering power was calculated at around 650 kW.

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As for today, Tesla 3’s battery pack has the highest in the industry $160 Wh/kg gravimetric energy. If the battery of Lilium’s EVTOL is as good as that of Tesla 3, then the energy of EVTOL’s battery is [900*0.16], i.e. 144 kWh. Accordingly, the EVTOL’s fuel consumption is [144/1,88], i.e. 77 kWh/100mi., which is around 3 times greater than that of 2020 Tesla 3 Standard Range (26 kWh/100 mi).

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The battery pack of Lilium’s EVTOL may be substituted by 144 to 200 kW gas turbine power generator enhanced with AG-Cycle, and 15 – 20 kWh of-the-shelf high power graphene ultra-capacitors pack with gravimetric energy of 60 Wh/kg and C-rate of 30 from Kurt Energy  or other manufacture. The estimated weight of the power plant (including fuel) would not exceed 900 kg, and would extended the range of the air-vehicle up to 600 mi.

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Interestingly, such power plant will not increase the cost of the air-vehicle, because graphene ultra-capacitors (aka. graphene pseudo-batteries) have very low cobalt content and as soon as their mass-production sets out, they will become cheaper than contemporary Li-ion batteries, especially keeping in mind that ultra-capacitor pack requires neither battery management system nor liquid cooling system.

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If fuel efficiency of the AG-gas turbine power generator was 60%, the fuel economy of AG-EVTOL would be [188/((144/0.6)/33.7)], i.e. around 26 MPG, which is as much as fuel economy of an average conventional IC engine car or SUV. If AG-gas turbine power generator was to yield 200 kW, instead of 144 kW, the air-vehicle’s cruise speed would be around [188*sqrt(200/144)], i.e. 220 MPH; and its fuel economy would be [220/(200/0.6)/33.7)], i.e. 22 MPG.

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AG-EVTOLs are by far safer than contemporary vehicles means of transportation,  because they are expected to operate autonomously right upon their commencement. Relatively low operational costs will make weekday air-commuting by AG-EVTOLs popular among people who work in cities but enjoys more to live closer to nature; air-commuting for 100 mi trip will typically take half an hour.

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Estimates show that in time-sharing mode air-commutting will annually cost $23,000 for 100mi distance, which is nearly as much as committing by typical SUV and paying for parking in the city area. An affordable weekday air-commuting will bring about dramatic changes in suburban real estate market; make inner cities less overcrowded. Today, high cost of living in big cities often forces white-collar families with kids relocating to suburbs; AG-EVTOL weekday air-communing will help providers in such families to keep their well paying jobs in cities.

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As soon as the technology matures and gets cheaper, it will likely phase out a substantial portion of conventional medium-and even moderately long-haul aviation. For example, a door-to-door flight travel on AG-EVTOL from New York City to Sarasota, Fl will take around 6.5 hours with two stops for 30 minutes each, substantially a door-to-door time trip by a conventional airline trip.

Such AG-EVTOL trip will cost less than a car trip; it will be much faster and safer. For example, people living on the east coast cities like New York; Boston; Washington, DC, and own recreational real estate in “summer” states like Florida, will be able to weekend air-commute between these cities and, say, Sarasota, Fl. For two persons the estimated annual price tag of weekend air-commuting service between New York and Sarasota, is $27,000.

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The key advantage of AG-EVTOLs is that they are much more environmentally friendly compared with EVs, not to mention IC vehicles, because they are “non-exhaust emission (NEE)” free means of transportation. Non-exhaust PM (particulate matter) factors include tire wear, brake wear, road surface wear and resuspension of road dust. NEEs are currently believed to constitute the majority of primary particulate matter from road transport, 60 percent of PM2.5 and 73 percent of PM10.